When we speak of estimating a situation we are talking about the everyday process of logical thinking. All of us size up many situations that arise in our daily lives. After we think them over and draw our conclusions, we are then in a position to act, either to remedy the situation or to take advantage of it, depending upon whether the set of circumstances is favorable or unfavorable to us.
If an individual follows the process outlined above, we say he is logical. If he acts on the spur of the moment—that is, without thinking it over—we say he is impulsive. Occasionally he might get away with his impulsiveness, but sooner or later the law of averages catches up with him and he gets into trouble.
In military operations too much is at stake for any country to permit its leaders to act on impulses or on intuition. Occasionally we hear of individuals who instinctively guess correctly, but unless their so-called guesses are based on sound logic and experience, they eventually become the yictims of their own guessing games. For most of us, years of training in logical thinking, coupled with hard-earned knowledge, years of experience, and common sense, are the only means by which we can learn to solve our problems correctly.
The more practice we get in logical thinking, in estimating situations—military or otherwise—the more skillful we become. To assist us in solving military problems, we have several mental aids that we can use, such as estimate-of-the-situation forms, check-off lists, and pamphlets, all designed to make it easier for us to understand this ordinary human function of logical thinking. We are attempting to develop the ability to take any situation—particularly, military situations—weigh all the factors that have any bearing whatsoever on the situation, and arrive at a sound decision upon which we can act successfully. The Armed Forces Estimate form is one guide, one check-off list, designed to assist us to think logically in military situations. It contains five main sections, under each of which is listed most of the things we must ordinarily consider in solving a military problem.
The first paragraph of this estimate form is titled “MISSION.” Your Commander has given you a task to perform, so that job now becomes your problem. Under “MISSION” then, we set down the task we have been assigned. Suppose he said: “Seize an advance base in order to support future operations against the country of X.” Here he has told us what to do and why. “Seize an advance base” is what to do—that is our task, or job. “In order to support future operations against the country of X” is why we are doing it. Together the “what” and the “why” combine to form our “MISSION.”
Before we go any further, we must be sure that we understand our mission. We must be sure that we know exactly what we are to do, so that no time and effort will be wasted on non-essentials in our planning. Thus we may find it necessary to analyze our mission. What does he mean by “advance base”? Are we sure that we picture in our minds the same kind of advance base that the Commander has in mind? Does he want an anchorage, airfields, harbor, fixed installations, or what? How soon does he want it ready? What kind of support does he want this advance base to furnish? Against what part of the country of X is he going to operate? All these questions and others must be answered before we can do any intelligent planning. Thus we analyze our mission, in Paragraph One, before we go any further.
Now that we are sure we know exactly what the Commander wants, we’ve saved ourselves a lot of work at the very beginning, and we’ve succeeded in narrowing down our problem from any advance base to a particular kind of advance base—the kind the Commander requires for the support of his future operations. There may be times when your Commander does not hand you a clearly outlined task. Suppose he says, in effect, “If anything turns up over there, use your own judgment.” Or maybe he sent you off on independent duty without telling you anything. Something comes up and you’re it. You have to do something about it.
In this kind of situation you may have to assign yourself a task. What kind of a task? A task that will support your Commander. In other words, your mission must be one that will support your Commander’s mission, one that will assist him in accomplishing his task. The more effectively you can do this, the more valuable you will be to him. So you deduce your own mission by deciding for yourself how you can be of greatest assistance in supporting the plan of your Commander. This single important step may require considerable thought and analysis before you go any further.
Now that you’ve decided exactly what you should do, you find that the problem has narrowed itself down considerably, and you are ready to go to work on it. Thus, you begin Paragraph Two of your Estimate: “The SITUATION and COURSES OF ACTION.”
Before you get into the details of any problem, however, it is usually a good idea to get the background, the chain of events that led up to your current problem. So you begin your work in Paragraph Two by summarizing the general situation, or the background leading up to your particular situation. With this background information in mind, you then proceed with your own problem and attack it from every conceivable angle. Using all available intelligence you begin sizing up the enemy forces that will probably oppose you. You investigate everything that might possibly influence your plans in one way or another, or might influence your opponent’s ability to thwart you. You cover a wide variety of subjects: weather politics, economics, numbers and types of weapons, state of training and quality of opposing forces, distances that might be involved for you and for your enemy, the supply problem, how much time you have for preparation, what the enemy knows about you, and so forth—to the extent and in the detail that you consider necessary for solving your problem.
In discussing the many items that might influence your problem, you must be careful not to embark on a long geographical society tour, where you list page after page of information without making any progress toward solving your problem. Be brief; don’t waste your time. You must treat each item with only one purpose in mind. How will this particular item affect you in this operation? How will it affect your opponent? Is it a help or a hindrance to you? It may help both you and your opponent. It may assist in certain instances and hinder in others. Thus the depth of water in the area of operations may hinder your navigation, but it may also be a protection against enemy submarines. It may cause you to expose yourself to enemy mines at the start of the operation, but it may enable you to lay protective mine fields after you enter the area.
Do not waste on any single item any more time than is necessary to determine its advantages and disadvantages to you and to your enemy. List these advantages and disadvantages—strength and weakness factors—for yourself and for your opponent before going on to the next item. Thus as you finish this examination of every aspect of your problem, you have a list of strength and weakness factors—a list for yourself and a list for your enemy. Arrange these lists carefully so that they can be studied and compared; they are the key to the solution of your problem.
With your opponent’s elements of strength and weakness now carefully listed, you are in a position to decide what he is capable of doing to oppose you. Thus you list everything that he can do to thwart your plans. In the same manner you are also able to decide from a study of the list of your own strengths and weaknesses the number of ways in which you can do the job assigned to you; in other words, the courses of action open to you. Your position may be such that you are able to think of only one way to perform your task. Possibly your weaknesses are such that you can see no way to carry out your assignment. In the latter case, of course, you must inform your Commander of your findings so that he can give you the additional forces or time you require for the task—or give you a different task, one you are capable of accomplishing.
You have now completed your work under Paragraph Two of the estimate form. Your labor has produced two lists, one of enemy capabilities to interfere with your plans and the other of courses of action open to you. List enemy capabilities in what you think is the order of their value to your opponent. List your own courses of action in what appears to be the order of their value to you. Before proceeding further, you might, by a re-examination of the enemy capabilities, be able to eliminate one or more of them because such action could do you little, if any, harm. On the other hand, you might be able to think of other capabilities; if so, list them with the others. Likewise, a simple inspection of your own courses of action may enable you to eliminate some of the less desirable courses in your list. This preliminary shakeout will save you time and effort. Drop the non-essential items as soon as you discover their unimportance; spend your time and effort on things that are pertinent to your problem.
In Paragraph Three, “The ANALYSIS OF OPPOSING COURSES OF ACTION,” you work with the two lists that you completed in paragraph two: the enemy capabilities and your own courses of action. To start things off, you follow through your first course of action listed. Suppose the enemy decides to use his Capability Number One against you. Do you see your way clear to stop him before he does any serious harm, or will his action upset your plan? If it looks like he can spoil your plan, you’d better not waste any more time on Course Number One. Eliminate it and begin testing Course Number Two. Maybe this course will fare better. Perhaps, after testing it against all the enemy capabilities in your list, you find that it will stand up against anything your opponent has to offer. This course shows promise. Put it aside for future reference.
After you have tested all your courses of action against everything your opponent can do, you are ready to look over the survivors. Perhaps only one course in the entire list stood up. In that case it is the only way to perform the task assigned you, so that remaining course of action then becomes your decision. If more than one of your courses of action stood the test, you must now choose the one that will produce the best results. This process of choosing the best of your remaining courses of action takes you to the next step in your thought process.
In Paragraph Four of the estimate form, “The COMPARISON OF OWN COURSES OF ACTION,” you proceed to select the best of your remaining courses of action. Any one of them will suit your purpose, or you would not have listed it in Paragraph Two. They will also stand up against anything the enemy can bring against them; you proved that in Paragraph Three. Now all that remains is to ask yourself which of these courses of action will bring you the best results for the least amount of time and effort? Which one of these courses will put you in the best position in respect to present and future operations? Thus the course you select will have weathered the following tests:
(a) Will it accomplish your job? (Is it suitable?)
(b) Will it work? (Is it feasible?)
(c) Can your side afford the losses that will probably be sustained? (Is it acceptable?)
As soon as you make this selection, you are ready for Paragraph Five, the “DECISION,” the final step in the estimate form.
From your selected course of action you now write your decision. In clear, positive language, you set down what your force as a whole is going to do to accomplish the task assigned you. This is your decision; this is what you are going to do. You may then add briefly how, when, where, and why you propose to act on your decision.
You have now completed your Estimate of the Situation, composed of the following paragraphs:
(1) Mission.
(2) The Situation and Courses of Action.
(3) Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action.
(4) Comparison of Own Courses of Action.
(5) Decision.
Now that you have made your decision, stop and reflect on what you have done. You have selected one course of action to accomplish your task. You based that selection on conditions as they appeared to you at the time. The situation, however, is always changing. You must continue to keep your mind open. Be alert to sense changing situations that produce weaknesses in the method you have selected to accomplish your task. Change your decision if it becomes necessary. You must outwit your opponent.
If you now attempt to write out your orders, you soon find that there are some additional problems that you must solve before your orders are complete. Remember that when these orders reach your subordinate commanders, they in turn must decide how they will accomplish the tasks you assign them. Your orders must be complete and clear, so that they cannot be misunderstood.
These problems that now must be solved are sometimes called complementary problems. Here are some examples: You need more up-to-date information about your enemy, particularly about the base you are planning to seize. How are you going to get it? That is a complementary problem. You must soften up the enemy so your troops can get ashore. There are several things to consider in solving this complementary problem. How do you plan to protect your forces while they are enroute to their objective? Where are you going to get your fuel, ammunition, provisions, etc.? You must organize your forces and coordinate their movements to the objective area. These are additional complementary problems.
In simple operations, many of these complementary problems can be solved in a short time—in a paragraph or two. Still others, the more elementary and obvious ones, might even be solved mentally without any difficulty. In more complicated operations, however, some of the complementary problems may require as much time as you spent on your original estimate. Regardless of the time required, the same logical thought process that you used to arrive at your main decision is used to solve your complementary problems.
After you’ve solved the complementary problems, what do you have? You have, of course, a list of smaller jobs, all parts of your main task, which you can now assign to your subordinates in your operation order. These smaller tasks, when completed in the course of your operations, will all help to accomplish the task your Commander assigned to you.
Now all the details are worked out. You are ready to write your orders and start the ball rolling. In simple operations all the details can probably be included in your operation order without making it too long and complicated. In larger operations some of the details that you have worked out may better be placed in annexes to your operation order.
If your thinking has been logical and your orders are clearly written, you will now be in a position to supervise the completion of your task. Under your watchful eye your operation can now proceed as you were able to visualize it in your Estimate.
The above discussion is not an attempt to furnish a magic key to sound military thinking. Nothing can take the place of intelligence, common sense, and the years of hard work required to become a competent leader. There is no short cut to logical thinking. One must estimate countless situations before he can consider himself ready to assume the responsibilities of a military commander. In times of crisis, in positions of great responsibility, some men succeed; others fail. It is a universal truth that “In war there is no second place.” You must outwit your opponent.
A graduate of the U. S. Naval Academy in 1933, Commander Miller saw battleship, cruiser, and destroyer service during the next eight years on the U.S.S. California, Tuscaloosa, Zane, Gojf, and Gilmer. From 1941 to 1943 he served in the Executive Department at the Naval Academy. From 1943 to 1945 he was Damage Control Officer on the cruiser Houston in the Western Pacific, and then was Executive Officer of the Houston for another year. In 1947 he completed the Junior Naval War College Course in Strategy and Tactics, and at present he is a member of the Staff of the President of the Naval War College.